Loss of Wainwright Leaves Cardinals in Mediocrity

A lot of times, when people make predictions in sports, they dismiss health as a contributing factor to a team's season or chances to win.

I was guilty of this just last week with the St. Louis Cardinals.

A once promising season for the Cards, at least in my mind, now looks very bleak, as ace Adam Wainwright will require season-ending surgery on his throwing elbow. This is a huge blow to the Cards, who lose a player that has been the anchor of their rotation for the last three years. It also impacts the Cardinals' chances to win the division significantly. I would argue that the loss of Wainwright is almost as devastating as the hypothetical loss of Albert Pujols for the season. He's simply that good.

It's truly amazing to reflect on the significance one major injury can have on the entire scheme of a baseball season. Now, the NL Central is wide open. Cincinnati will come back strong again in 2011. The Cubs and Brewers are both much improved. And the Cardinals should still put together a winning season, even without Wainwright. They can thank the division they play in for that. I don't see the winner of the NL Central this year getting any more than 88 wins, but I feel like all the teams mentioned above are capable of reaching that mark. If a team like Milwaukee can sneak in to the playoffs, with an offense like theirs and a rotation that now includes Zach Greinke and Shaun Marcum, it would make for a very interesting playoff dynamic, even if only because there would be fresh blood in the mix. Cincinnati did this last year and got outright mauled by the Phillies, but I really believe the 2011 Brewers would put up more of a fight. I think they're a team to keep your eye on now that the Cardinals no longer hold the high ground.

With all NL Central teams now mired in mediocrity, who knows? We may actually see some halfway-exciting baseball out of that division this season. Just not from the Pirates, of course.