The Homestretch, Day 1: Rays Still Rule

It's been exactly a month since my last post, since the trio of Dodger deals at this year's deadline, since the time the Dodgers were fighting the same fight they are still fighting today. But not every playoff contender is in the same position they were one month ago. Starting today, I will be making daily contributions to this blog as part of baseball's ultimate homestretch: the month of September. To begin, I take a look back at my midseason predictions to see how I am faring with a little less than a fifth of the 2010 season remaining:

American League

AL East Champion: Tampa Bay Rays
If the season ended today, this pick would be incorrect, but the Rays would still be a playoff team. It has been my stance all along that the Rays are the best team in baseball, and despite trailing the Yankees by 1 1/2 games in the East standings, I still believe they will hoist the Commissioner's Trophy in 2010.

AL Central Champion: Chicago White Sox
This, too, is still possible. If new acquisition Manny Ramirez (so glad he's not in Dodger blue anymore) can produce the way he did when he came to Los Angeles in 2008, and if the Sox pitching holds up, you can bet they will overtake the Twins in the Central this month and become a dangerous team for anyone in the AL to face in the playoffs.

AL West Champion: Texas Rangers
Basically a lock at this point. The Rangers haven't dominated anyone recently, but the rest of the division hasn't been winning behind them. Now with a ten-game lead, the Rangers can take their magic number of 20 into this homestretch, and hopefully get Cliff Lee straightened out in the process.

AL Wild Card: New York Yankees
Also a lock, provided they don't win the division. I can't wait for a Rays-Yankees ALCS...

Rays over White Sox in 4
Yankees over Rangers in 4
...which is what I predicted here. The Twins and White Sox are interchangeable, as they will both lose to the Rays in four.

Rays over Yankees in 7
This series could be the most epic we see in a long while. It will be better than this year's World Series, regardless of which National League team makes it in.

The AL playoff picture is a lot more clear cut than that of the NL. The only race still undecided is in the Central, where either the Twins or White Sox will represent the division. I still say the Sox pitching wins out and they'll be back in the playoffs for the first time since they won the Series in 2005.

National League

NL East Champion: Philadelphia Phillies
Three games out of the division lead right now, the Phillies are getting healthy quickly and are looking to make their move. Taking two out of three from the Dodgers this week puts them a game-and-a-half up on the Giants for the wild card. Playing well in September has been key for the Phillies in each of the last two seasons, particularly leading up to their World Series run in 2008. Expect them to follow suit once again this September.

NL Central Champion: St. Louis Cardinals
How bad have the Cardinals been recently? Since sweeping the division-leading Reds back in mid-August, the Cardinals have gone 5-13, while the Reds have gone 14-4, and the result is an eight-game deficit for the redbirds. This is virtually insurmountable with 31 games left, but don't count the Cardinals out of the wild card chase. They're only five back entering play today, and if things turn around quickly, they just might sneak into this year's postseason.

NL West Champion: Los Angeles Dodgers
After being just two games back of the Padres for the division lead at the All-Star break, the Dodgers are all but out of playoff contention. They have failed to find any offensive consistency, even with the additions of Scott Podsednik, Ryan Theriot, and Rod Barajas. The good news for the Dodgers - 24 of their 28 remaining games are against NL West opponents, who they are 30-18 against this season.

NL Wild Card: Atlanta Braves
Again, still a possibility if they lose the division to the Phillies. The Giants are in the hunt though as well, and they certainly cannot be ignored at this point. The second toughest division in baseball may once again get two teams into the playoffs, but don't count on it if the Phillies continue to play well.

Phillies over Dodgers in 4
Cardinals over Braves in 5
Presumably, I would substitute the Padres for the Dodgers and the Reds for the Cardinals here. The Phillies just impressively swept the Padres in San Diego this weekend, and I would still expect them to win that series. Reds-Braves, however, is a toss-up. Whoever has home-field advantage probably takes that series, but it will be very close.

Phillies over Cardinals in 6
To reiterate, I place the winner of Reds-Braves here instead of the Cardinals. Regardless, Philadelphia still represents the National League in the World Series this year. With Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels as your top three starters, you're going to be very tough to beat in any playoff series. No other NL team can match the Phillies on either side of the ball when healthy.

There's still a lot to be decided in the NL, which will make September an exciting month if you're a Braves, Phillies, Reds, Cardinals, Padres, or Giants fan. And even if you're not, there are still plenty of opportunities for spoilers to rear their ugly heads and influence this pennant race.

World Series

Rays over Phillies in 6
The most complete team in baseball, the Rays win this year's World Series. We have seen it since April, and with 82 wins already in the bag, the strength and the depth of their team have made themselves known to the rest of the league. September belongs to the homestretch, but October will belong to the Rays.